The Case Against War with Syria

by Carlos L. Diaz

Two days ago, the President of the United States said he would seek congressional approval for military action against Syria. The president’s comments came as a response to the Syrian regime’s use of chemical weapons against its own citizens. Members of Congress should not rush to a conclusion on such a delicate matter. Before authorizing the United States to become a belligerent in this brutal, bloody civil war, the representatives of the world’s oldest constitutional democracy should perform a very careful analysis of the current situation and its possible outcomes. Four questions need to be asked before committing the nation into another international conflict. Would military intervention help the Syrian people? What are the possible outcomes of intervention? Is there public support for involvement? What justifications does the country have under today’s frail international law system?

The current plan of attack consists of firing Tomahawk missiles from the Mediterranean coast aimed at military targets within Syria. Such an attack comes with many inherent risks–missiles could hit chemical weapons depots and cause deadly gases to spread from the bases to the lungs of  innocent civilians, or missiles could go astray and hit unintended targets. The people of Syria have endured a civil war, which has claimed more than 100,000 lives, but the effects of an attack from the world’s most powerful army is not something easy to predict. The best possible outcome is one in which the United States seriously cripples the capabilities of the Syrian army and kills President Assad and his inner circle with a minimum amount of innocent dead civilians. What happens after this military “success”?

A realization of the above scenario will not translate into a liberal democracy with utmost respect for human rights spawning into existence in Syria. Most likely, the country will experience prolonged sectarian violence–similar to the kind seen in the civil sectarian wars of Lebanon and Iraq. As Fareed Zakaria explains, Syria is the last of the three Middle Eastern minority regimes. Zakaria predicts that this conflict is going to linger for ten years or more because there are more than one thousand militias, belonging to six or seven major groups, fighting for power in Syria. He points to the examples of Lebanon, where the United States did not intervene in that nation’s fifteen year civil war, and Iraq, where the United States did intervene to depose the minority Sunni regime. In Iraq American intervention produced very insignificant results–the country had eight hundred deaths last month, has been infiltrated by Al-Qaeda, and is on the brink of another civil war. As Zakaria puts it “we intervened in Iraq and all those terrible things happened anyway.” If the “successful” scenario takes place the next step in the conflict would be the slaughter of the Alawites–Assad’s group–by the majority Sunni. After this slaughter would come a new conflict among the victorious parties which would be unlikely to share power. Iraq is a crucial example because in that case 180,000 American troops could not fix the underlying problems, it is very unlikely that Tomahawk missiles can do a better job than 180,000 ground troops.

When members of Congress decide whether or not to intervene in Syria they should keep in mind that they are the people’s representatives. A recent NBC News poll found that only 42% of Americans think the government should take military action in response to the chemical weapons attack, while 50% of the public disapprove of such action. These numbers are particularly important because the reputation of the Legislative branch has taken toll in the last few years. Acting in a way that is clearly contrary to the opinion of a majority of the public will only exacerbate the negative trend. The Wall Street Journal points out that in previous conflicts at least a majority of Americans have supported intervention and that greater conflicts, like Afghanistan in 2001, have had “significant public support.”

The last point I would like to make relates to the dangerous precedent such an attack will create in the field of international law. David Kaye explains what would allow the United States to legally attack Syria.

Under the United Nations Charter […] states are generally prohibited from using force against other states unless they are acting in individual or collective self-defense or pursuant to an authorization of the UN Security Council.

It is impossible for the United States to assert a claim of self-defense and the Security Council will not act because two of its members, Russia and China, refuse to condemn the Syrian regime. This means that the United States is planning to use force against another state without any legal justification. This avoidance of international law will undoubtedly make the already fragile system even weaker and put the United States in a situation where it will not be able to demand that other states follow rules it does not. Legal flexibility is an extremely dangerous precedent to set.

For all of the reasons mentioned, the United States should remain aloof this conflict. The loss of human life, the chemical attacks, the refugee crisis, and the sheer brutality of the conflict are capable of producing an emotional effect on any decent human being. But an in-depth analyses of the situation would lead to a conclusion different from the one reached by President Obama.

Whether the U.S Intervenes or not Syria is Doomed

by Carlos L. Diaz

  For over two years there has been a civil war going on in Syria. This war is being fought between the brutal and ruthless regime of Bashar al-Assad and various groups of rebels with different ideologies and goals. The diversity of these groups is easily seen by looking at two of them, the Free Syrian Army – a group with ideas for a new Syria that are democratic and somewhat secular – and Jabhat al-Nusra – a rebel group with close ties to Al-Qaeda whose idea for Syria is to reestablish the Caliphate and Islamic law. The bloody conflict has taken the lives of more than seventy thousand people and has produced more than three million refugees. These two atrocious numbers along with claims that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons have restarted a debate in the United States. At the center of this debate is a key question: What should the United States do? There are different answers to that question. Some, like United States Senator John McCain have said that airstrikes, arming the rebels, and creating a no-fly zone are the answer. President Obama has been quiet and cautious on this issue and seems to be reluctant to intervene. The American public seems to be taking the president’s position. In a recent poll by the Huffington Post and YouGov, support for any kind of military action by the United States in Syria is extremely low.

John McCain’s position in this issue seemed somewhat appealing to me at first, but I was not convinced. The Senator claims that what he is asking the administration to do is not unprecedented. He points to the examples of Bosnia, Kosovo and Libya, as instances in which no-fly zones and U.S airstrikes helped end conflicts and saved lives. McCain also supports his argument for intervention by reminding us that a blow to Assad will be a tremendous blow to the Iranian government. When asked about putting troops on the ground, the senator answered by saying that this was a bad idea because it could create a backlash. He cites the recent airstrikes carried out by Israel in Syria as evidence that the country’s defenses are not as strong as they seem. He also supports arming the rebels and claims that if the chemical weapons are not secured they could end up in the hands of terrorist organizations like Hezbollah.

People like John McCain are telling the President to do something which can produce a completely different outcome than the one they intend. The indiscriminate targeting of civilians, the use of chemical weapons, the ethnic cleansing experienced in some areas, and the threat of transfer of weapons to Hezbollah are good enough reasons to intervene in the Syrian conflict. What advocates of military intervention are missing is the reality that there are very few positive outcomes for this conflict, as a matter of fact, things could get even worse after Assad falls. In an article in the New Yorker, Dexter Filkins talks about some of these outcomes. If Assad falls, fighting will continue among rebel groups who have conflicting ideologies, religious beliefs, and ethnic loyalties. This point is illustrated by the militias which exist in Syria, there are Druze militias, Islamic militias, Christian militias, Kurdish militias, and the government is controlled by Alawites. Toppling the Syrian regime could lead to ethnic cleansing by the Sunnis, which are the majority, this could then lead to refugees fleeing to Lebanon or Jordan- a large number of refugees could have destabilizing effects for the entire region.

On the other hand, inaction on the part of the United States is already having serious consequences and as time goes by the situation worsens. If President Obama does not act, no one knows how many more innocent people will die, or how many chemical weapons will make their way to Hezbollah’s arsenal. In the case of Syria, some experts agree that only a full-scale military invasion can do the job. The U.S did execute a full-scale military invasion of Iraq and shortly after it left, the country seems to be in the brink of another civil war. This means that if the U.S were to invade Syria and avoid another Iraq, it should leave a permanent force in that country- a very unappealing idea.

What has been happening in Syria for the past two years is nothing less than heartbreaking, which helps explain the debate going on about military action by American forces. It is increasingly looking like the outcome of this war will not be a positive one, regardless of whether the United States intervenes or remains on the sidelines. If it intervenes and overthrows Assad but does not stay, a power vacuum will emerge, one which the Al-Qaeda elements that have created strongholds in major cities will exploit in order to convert Syria into a rogue state from which they can operate freely. The same thing could occur if the U.S simply supplies arms to the rebels and they overthrow the regime. If the U.S simply maintains its inaction attitude, the regime is still likely to fall and Islamic fighters will have more time to solidify their future in Syria. If Assad remains in power fighting is likely to increase and more innocent civilians will be killed or displaced. Inaction will also give Assad time to transfer weapons to groups like Hezbollah.