From left to right: Nicolas Maduro and Diosdado Cabello.
By Carlos L. Diaz
There are many rumors floating around about the health, or lack thereof, of Venezuelan president/caudillo Hugo Rafael Chavez Frías. Recently, a Panamanian diplomat went on CNN Chile to proclaim the leader’s death which, according to him, occurred at the end of last year. Things have gotten so wild that even those in the caudillo’s inner circle are contradicting each other. This peculiar set of claims leads me to inquire about what is going on in Venezuela.
There are a few things which most observers agree on. First is the fact that Chavez has not been seen in public since December 11. The only evidence that he was alive came in the form of a picture, which showed the ailing elected dictator reading the February 14 edition of Granma–Cuba’s official Communist party newspaper–in the company of his two daughters. Second is the information provided by the Venezuelan government which states that Chavez traveled to Caracas and is being treated at a military hospital in the Venezuelan capital.
Due to his trip to Cuba, for health reasons stemming from his struggle with cancer, Chavez missed his inauguration which was scheduled for January 10. The critical reader might ask: Who is running Venezuela if nobody has been sworn in? The answer is Chavez’s Vice President, former bus driver, and designated heir Nicolas Maduro. Venezuela’s Supreme Court allowed Mr. Maduro to act in the function of president arguing that since Chavez had been reelected there was no major problem with prolonging the swearing in.
The solution to this crisis seems to lie in the Venezuelan constitution which stipulates that if the president dies, resigns, or is incapacitated to serve, elections must be held within thirty days. Why a group of qualified doctors have not been asked to determine if Chavez is able to continue as president is beyond my knowledge.
As of now, it looks as a question of when and not if Chavez will lose the presidency. His medical condition, as secret as it has been, seems to be critical if not terminal. The pressure from both critics and supporters for more transparency will not allow this to go on forever. What will happen after he steps down is a crucial question Venezuelans, and others interested in the region, are eager to know.
The person who will represent the Venezuelan opposition to Chavismo will clearly be Henrique Capriles who lost to Chavez in October of last year, but was nonetheless able to give Chavez the best fight he ever had in an election . But who will represent Chavismo? In a recent article in the New Yorker Magazine, Boris Munoz describes the differences and the rivalry between the two figures that seem likely to replace Chavez [i].
Nicolas Maduro represents the civilian wing of Chavez’s Bolivarian movement. He believes in socialism based on the very flawed Cuban model–this comes as no surprise since it is also known that the Vice President has a cozy relationship with the Castro brothers and the Cuban leadership in general. One of Maduro’s accomplishments was to finally lead Venezuela to join MERCOSUR- a trade bloc for South American nations.
On behalf of the military wing of Chavismo stands Diosdado Cabelllo who is the president of the National Assembly and a long time member of the armed forces. He is known as a tough guy who has helped “the boss” in closing several news outlets in Venezuela like RCTV. He is connected to the Venezuelan Socialist Party (PSUV). Some speculate that he will have a less close relationship with Cuba and will instead rely on the armed forces and the newly created upper class of Venezuela.
If either one of these men win the presidency–polls show they are favorite over Capriles–Venezuela might deviate a little from the course in which Captain Chavez placed it, but the dictatorial aspects will be as strong or even stronger than during Chavez’s reign.
Eclectic Affinities 
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